Best International Feature Film Predictions for the Oscars 2023

Best International Feature Film Predictions for the Oscars 2023 ...

All of our 2023 Oscar predictions will be updated throughout the awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of our 2023 Oscar picks. The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT.

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson are collaborating on forecast updates for this category. See Thompson's preliminary thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here and earlier predictions for this category here.

The fact that "All Quiet on the Western Front" is at least a guaranteed nominee for this year's Academy Award is starting to become more common. With that obvious strength across many branches of the Academy and a robust Netflix awards campaign, the frontrunner in the Best International Feature Film category will be tough to beat.

When Berger's brilliant and perceptive 1929 film — the first directed by a German director, but the third total cinematic effort — was not the obvious frontrunner at the Toronto International Film Festival last fall. Park Chan-wook's crime thriller "Decision to Leave" (which attracted admirers, but others found it too long or slow) and Austrian period piece "Corsage" (a terrific showcase for Un Certain Regard Best Actress co-winner Vicky Krieps)

The two Cannes films that made it to the final round, the tragic Belgian coming-of-age drama "Close" and the Polish donkey odyssey "EO," had yet to launch their campaigns. In the weeks following its festival run, "All Quiet" quickly entered the mix with high-profile Academy screenings that included one hosted by Benedict Cumberbatch.

Ricardo Darn plays eccentric lawyer Julio César Strassera, who risked his life to lead the so-called "Trial of the Juntas," prosecuting the rulers of the country's military dictatorship, in a third collaboration. The film was shot mostly in the exact room where they took place by filmmaker Santiago Mitre.

“Argentina, 1985,” says the author.

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The Amazon Studios release came to an end shortly after an assassination attempt on Argentina's vice president, which adds to the country's current political turmoil, which is perhaps aimed at Academy voters who want a more current subject matter, such as Darn, who previously starred in the 2009 International Oscar nominee "The Secrets in Their Eyes."

Argentineans who hoped for the film's success have noted a possible historical parallel in their favor: The country won its first Oscar in 1986 for Luis Puenzo's "The Official Story," shortly after it won the World Cup for the first time; last December was the second time. So if the past is prologue and there is a cosmic order to the universe, don't count it out.

A24 made the strategic decision to release "Close" in January, close to the end of the nomination deadline, which appears to have benefited the filmmaker. With this tearjerker about a 13-year-old boy (Eden Dambrine) who has an intimate friendship with his peer Rémi that falls apart due to schoolyard bullies, the film won the Grand Prix at Cannes and might appeal to Academy voters who want a more intimate and universally emotional narrative than the bigger-budgeted offerings.

Jerzy Skolimowski, an 84-year-old Polish author, received the Prix du Jury at Cannes (he shared it with "The Eight Mountains"), and the film has been steadily gaining interest in theaters for months, much like distributor Sideshow's "Drive My Car" last year.

The 2020 film "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom," which received its first Oscar nomination after a brief absence on the festival circuit, has gone to another historic first, bringing Ireland its first-ever nomination for the category. The adaptation of Claire Keegan's story, however, might help the category grow.

Nominees are ranked in order of their likelihood to win.

Contenders: "All Quiet on the Western Front" (Edward Berger, Germany) "Argentina, 1985" (Santiago Mitre, Argentina) "Close" (Lukas Dhont, Belgium) "EO" (Jerzy Skolimowski, Poland) "The Quiet Girl" (Colm Bairéad, Ireland)