Best Picture Predictions for the Oscars in 2023

Best Picture Predictions for the Oscars in 2023 ...

We will update these predictions throughout the awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of our 2023 Oscar picks. The 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT.

Marcus Jones, our award editor at large, speaks with Anne Thompson on the latest Oscars predictions. See their previous thoughts on what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here.

"Avatar" was that film that once dominated Oscar viewers' hearts in the 2010 Oscar nominations, winning three out of nine nominations and almost making it to Best Picture. James Cameron was ecstatic for his ex-wife, Kathryn Bigelow, who won for "The Hurt Locker."

Two PGA-nominated blockbuster sequels are competing for Best Picture, "Avatar: The Way of Water" (four nods) and "Top Gun: Maverick" (six nods), but neither has a director nomination. Both had to demonstrate skill and effort to make a movie come to life.

The top prize will likely go to the Daniels' "Everything Everywhere All at Once," a maverick independent film A24, which led the Oscar pack on nominations morning with 11.

After the SAG Ensemble awards, you may notice a surge of support for "Everything," which will likely win the top prize at the next SAG Awards. The actors (five SAG nominations), producers (PGA top 10, directors, and international voters (ten BAFTA nominations) support it, along with the crafts.

"Everything at once," says the author.

Courtesy of A24, Allyson Riggs

"Banshees of Inisherin," directed by Martin McDonagh, is up for the top prize with nine nominations, and will likely get a major boost from the upcoming BAFTAs (10 nominations); it's supported by actors (who nominated Colin Farrell, Barry Keoghan, Brendan Gleeson, and Kerry Condon), directors (PGA), writers (while not WGA eligible), and the international group.

"The Banshees of Inisherin," "TR," and "Triangle of Sadness," who were nominated for Best Picture at the specialty box office, all inevitably wound up on video on demand, as well as "The Fabelmans," which lost steam in the awards race when viewers did not arrive in theaters in droves.

Steven Spielberg's most personal film performed admirably for Academy audiences after being nominated for AFI FEST and TIFF, but it may have been harmed by being the presumptive frontrunner.

The most financially successful original film of the year, Baz Luhrmann's music biopic "Elvis," ($282 million worldwide), received eight nominations from just about every industry except writers and directors. Austin Butler is in a stronger position, along with Farrell, Blanchett, and Yeoh, because his film is a Best Picture contender.

"Everything Everywhere," "The Banshees of Inisherin," and "TR" Todd Field's music world drama, which received six nominations, is packed with unexpected surprises and will likely win one award for Globe and CCA winner Cate Blanchett for her third Oscar.

Edward Berger's German Oscar nomination, the World War I remake "All Quiet on the Western Front," which received nine nominations and five Oscar shortlist slots, has now become a household name in several crafts categories.

Many wished the Academy (which despite inclusion efforts is still 66 percent male and 81 percent white) had given more support to this year's raft of female-oriented films. Only Sarah Polley's feminist ensemble drama "Women Talking" received the Best Picture nomination, but the auteur chose to do it all-male this year. "The Woman King," a dark period action film set in Africa, and "She Said," a serious disgraced woman, was shuffled out

Nominees are ranked in order of likelihood of winning.

Contenders: "Everything All At Once" "The Banshees of Inisherin" "TR" "Elvis" "Top Gun: Maverick" "Avatar: The Way of Water" "All Quit on the Western Front" "Women Talking" "Triangle of Sadness"